ORE Parties

Expected Solo is how many solos a party's stake share should have won on average over its rounds. Compare it with Solo Won: 5 won against 1.5 expected is a lucky run. Solo-only parties show — because they have no split wins to read a share from.

Risk / Reward is the party's variance: how far luck can move its ORE from its average, worked out from its tiles, stake share, rounds and Motherlode range. Higher ±31% means about 2 runs in 3 land within 31% of average, and the rest land further out. Expected ORE per SOL shows that as a range, so 0.47–0.90 means about 2 runs in 3 land there. It isn't a rating: lower is steadier, higher can win more and can fall short more. Under ±15% is Lower, under ±30% Medium, the rest Higher. Parties still minting are worked out at today's market as if they fill. Across 67 real parties, 69% landed inside their range and 96% inside double it. Solos drive most of it.

What 67 parties showed, 23 Sep to 1 Nov:

• Luck: about 9 parts in 10 of the gap in Value per SOL. A few solos above the expected number decide most of the top of this table.
• When it ran: about 1 part in 10. SOL deployed a round roughly doubled to about 16 as ORE went from about $80 to $150, moving with the price, so a plain miner stayed near 1.1–1.2 per SOL through October.
• Settings: price filter, deploy timing, tile mix and round size showed no clear gain once luck was taken out. 39 of 48 parties with a filter still played 90%+ of their rounds.
• One hint: waiting for a 100+ Motherlode came out about 7% better, from only 7 parties.

Party grades are gone: with luck taken out, they didn't predict results.